AIA growth concerns keep Hong Kong hedge funds cautious

Tough year-on-year comparisons had already weighed on first-quarter momentum.

Jefferies Equities research said some Hong Kong-based hedge funds remain cautious about AIA Group Limited’s Value of New Business (VONB), pointing to high year-on-year comparisons that had already weighed on first-quarter growth and are expected to affect the second and third quarters. 

The brokerage said this has created a widening gap between international and local investor views. 

US long-only investors have largely used the decline in AIA’s share price following regulatory concerns as a buying opportunity, whilst Hong Kong-based hedge funds have remained more cautious. 

AIA’s second-quarter 2026 results were broadly in line with expectations, with VONB 0.4% ahead of consensus and Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) 4.1% above consensus. 

However, investors are already turning their attention to the third-quarter results, according to Jefferies. 

The valuation itself is another area of debate. Jefferies said investors use different measures to assess AIA, with international investors tending to focus on Return on Embedded Value (ROEV), whilst local investors place more weight on VONB growth. 

The brokerage found that the historical relationship between VONB growth and AIA’s price-to-embedded-value multiple has been inconsistent. 

Jefferies said ROEV has historically shown the strongest relationship with AIA’s valuation. Applying its five-year average correlation to the current ROEV implies 71% upside, whilst using the post-IPO average implies 89% upside. 

By comparison, the five-year relationship between VONB growth and price-to-embedded-value implies only 7% upside. 

The brokerage has nevertheless raised its forecasts following AIA’s first-half results. It lifted its 2026 EPS forecast by 3.5%, whilst its estimate for group VONB increased by 0.7%.