Even their bitterest opponents know it. Reform has upended politics in England and is making giant strides in Wales. They have led in all UK-wide opinion polls since early April, often by ten points or more. Starmer is terrified. Badenoch is at her wits’ end. But if there’s one place where we’ve assumed Reform couldn’t do it, it’s Scotland. Surely, we thought, Farage has zero chance the moment he peers nervously over Hadrian’s Wall.

Because until about five minutes ago, Reform had no foothold there whatsoever. Farage has been no more loved in Scotland than a visiting England rugby captain. He was physically threatened by a mob on a visit to Edinburgh a few years ago. His various parties, UKIP, Brexit and now Reform, are written off as a bunch of English nationalists. This week, he’s been condemned by his Scottish opponents as a racist.

Yet on Thursday, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse vote in a by-election for the Scottish Parliament that could see Reform beat Labour to second place. To say that such an outcome would be politically seismic would be too kind to earthquakes.

For Reform to beat Labour in one of its heartlands would be staggering, another indictment of Labour’s appalling first year in power and a further sign that the political realignment, which so many other countries are experiencing, is here to stay in Britain too.

To win the seat outright may well be a step too far. The SNP candidate will surely be victorious. But it is possible that Reform could leave Labour humbled.

There isn’t much constituency polling to go on, but recent Scotland-wide polls already have Reform overtaking Labour, helped by the Conservative vote collapsing, just as elsewhere in the UK. The Tories will be bracing themselves for a poor fourth, at best, desperate still to be seen as relevant.

What this tells us, of course, is that the people of Scotland are already royally fed up with Starmer’s Labour, which promised the earth and delivered thin gruel.

And they aren’t much more enamoured with the SNP, which has been in government for nearly two decades. So, who’s left? The despised Tories? As if. Just like in England, many are ready to give Reform a go.

Like them or loathe them (and I’m neutral on that), Reform is blasting through obstacles that were once considered insurmountable. Oh, they’ll always be a protest party, they pronounced.

They’ll never overtake the Tories. They’re no threat to Starmer. They’ll never get above 30%. They’ll only be a threat in England. They have no chance in Scotland.

Well, perhaps come the next general election, Reform will indeed have blown itself out. Perhaps the old two-party system will once again reassert itself in England.

Perhaps the battle in Scotland will again return to an SNP-Labour bun fight. Perhaps some scandal will engulf Farage, Rice or Anderson. Perhaps Starmer and Reeves will turn the economy round (or pigs will fly). Perhaps Rupert Lowe will wreak revenge. Perhaps, perhaps.

But with each passing week – and each new challenge – politicians, commentators and ordinary voters are being forced to take Reform ever more seriously. Even in Scotland.

Nigel Farage as PM? He still has a mountain to climb. It’s still a long shot. Labour, despite it all, is favourite. But if he can even get close this week in Hamilton, he’ll have taken another big step towards the summit.